Francesca Vinci
Economist
Business Cycle Analysis Division
DG Economics
European Central Bank
PhD Economics
Completed at the University of Nottingham
Research Interests
Primary: Macroeconomics, Growth Theory, Monetary Economics
Secondary: International Economics, Development Economics, Labour Economics
Passionate about
Connecting dots
Expanding my comfort zone
Teamwork
Email:
Francesca_Romana.Vinci@ecb.europa.eu
© Thibaud Poirier 2019
CURRICULUM VITAE
Full CV
Education
University of Nottingham
2016-2020 PhD Economics
2014-2015 MSc Economics (Distinction)
University of Rome Tor Vergata
2011-2014 BA Economics (110/110 Summa cum laude)
Experience
European Central Bank
September 2022 - today Economist
September 2020 - August 2022 Graduate Programme Participant
Bank of England
June - August 2020 PhD Intern
University of Nottingham
2019-2020 Graduate Teaching Fellow
2017-2019 Graduate Teaching Assistant
Canalys (UK)
2015-2016 Research Analyst, Cyber Security Division
References
Professor Omar Licandro
Univeristy of Nottingham
omar.licandro@nottingham.ac.uk
Professor Giammario Impullitti
Univeristy of Nottingham
RESEARCH
Working papers
Switching-track after the Great Recession
(Joint with Omar Licandro)
Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
20/02 Working Paper | 2020
Barcelona GSE Working Paper: 1260 | May 2021
CESifo Working Paper No. 9107 | May 2021
SUERF Policy Brief, No 244 | December 2021
ECB Working paper No 2596 | October 2021
Latest Version
Online Appendix
We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower trajectory. A Taylor rule policy designed to reduce the output gap may counterbalance the shocks, preventing the destruction of economic capacity and inducing a V-shaped recovery. However, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures, the so-called switching-track, weakening the recovering role of monetary policy and inducing an L-shaped recovery. When calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model replicates well the L-shaped recovery and switching-track that followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions.
Potential Output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed
(Joint with Omar Licandro)
Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
21/03 Working Paper
Latest Version
The Taylor Rule is widely considered a useful tool to summarise the Fed's policy, but the information set employed in practice to assess the state of economic activity is still an object of debate. The contribution of this paper is to provide evidence in favour of the following hypotheses. First, the original Taylor Rule is a valid representation of the actual working of the Fed's monetary policy. Second, the real time beliefs of the Fed concerning potential output can be proxied by the estimates published by the Congressional Budget Office. Third, potential output estimates were revised down following the Great Recession.
Intangible Intensity, Recessions and Growth Potential in Europe
Latest Version
This paper analyses the evolution of intangible intensity in Europe, in normal times and following a negative shock. I show that intangible intensity has been on the rise in Europe, both due to research and development expenditure (R&D) and other firm specific intangibles. I find that smaller firms invest relatively more in intangibles, larger firms tend to have a higher share of intangible capital and that firms that invest more in intangibles tend to grow faster in revenue. Moreover, I find evidence of a slowdown in the rise of intangible intensity brought about by the Great Recession of 2008-2009, driven by a slowdown in R&D investment. Overall, the paper offers insights on the drivers and evolution of intangible intensity in Europe, and its effect on
firm growth. Moreover, it provides evidence on the long lasting scarring effects of recessions on the structural transformation process towards a more intangible intensive economy, and on economic growth potential.
TEACHING
Graduate Teaching Assistant/Fellow
I received certified training from the Economics Network in 2017 and 2018
Teaching Excellence Award 2017/2018 and 2018/2019
(University of Nottingham)
" Very helpful feedback on presentation. Kind and approachable person."
Economic Integration
1st year module
2019/2020 Seminars
"Francesca went over and above to help me, and even gave me guidance on future study outside of the module. Cannot recommend her more highly, honestly the best person to have taught me this year."
Economics Dissertation
3rd year module
2018/2019 Seminars
"Amazing tutor, great at explaining things, the tutorials were really helpful"
Macroeconomic Theory
2nd year module
2017/2018 Seminars
"She was very helpful and got a lot of ideas regarding my dissertation (.... )She even put detailed suggestions on Moodle for me under my presentation submission and even links to find more information regarding her suggestions. She was also really helpful and knew a lot regarding stata and econometrics when I asked questions during my presentation."
Economics Dissertation
3rd year module
2019/2020 Seminars and
STATA clinics
"Great tutor and I definitely benefited a lot from her expertise and help."
Monetary Economics
2nd year module
2018/2019 Seminars
"I thought Francesca was an excellent tutor. She was very thorough with her explanations of questions."
Quantitative Methods
1st year module
2017/2018 Seminars