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Francesca Vinci



EU Institutions and Fora 

DG International and European Relations 

European Central Bank

PhD Economics 

Completed at the University of Nottingham 


Research Interests
Primary: Macroeconomics, Growth Theory, Monetary Economics

Secondary: International Economics, Development Economics, Labour Economics

Passionate about
Connecting dots 
Expanding my comfort zone 


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© Thibaud Poirier 2019


Full CV


University of Nottingham

2016-2020 PhD Economics 

2014-2015 MSc Economics (Distinction) 

University of Rome Tor Vergata

2011-2014 BA Economics (110/110 Summa cum laude)


European Central Bank

September 2022 - today  Economist

September 2020 - August 2022  Graduate Programme Participant


Bank of England

June - August 2020 PhD Intern  

University of Nottingham

2019-2020 Graduate Teaching Fellow  

2017-2019 Graduate Teaching Assistant


Canalys (UK)

2015-2016 Research Analyst, Cyber Security Division


Professor Omar Licandro 

Univeristy of Nottingham

Professor Giammario Impullitti

Univeristy of Nottingham


Working papers

Switching-track after the Great Recession

(Joint with Omar Licandro)
Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
20/02 Working Paper | 2020
Barcelona GSE Working Paper: 1260 | May 2021
CESifo Working Paper No. 9107 | May 2021
SUERF Policy Brief, No 244 |  December 2021
ECB Working paper No 2596 | October 2021
Latest Version 
Online Appendix
paperzoom - Copy.jpg

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower trajectory. A Taylor rule policy designed to reduce the output gap may counterbalance the shocks, preventing the destruction of economic capacity and inducing a V-shaped recovery. However, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures, the so-called switching-track, weakening the recovering role of monetary policy and inducing an L-shaped recovery. When calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model replicates well the L-shaped recovery and switching-track that followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions.

Potential Output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed

(Joint with Omar Licandro)
Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)
21/03 Working Paper
Latest Version 

The Taylor Rule is widely considered a useful tool to summarise the Fed's policy, but the information set employed in practice to assess the state of economic activity is still an object of debate. The contribution of this paper is to provide evidence in favour of the following hypotheses. First, the original Taylor Rule is a valid representation of the actual working of the Fed's monetary policy. Second, the real time beliefs of the Fed concerning potential output can be proxied by the estimates published by the Congressional Budget Office. Third, potential output estimates were revised down following the Great Recession.

Marrying Fiscal Rules and Investment: a Central Fiscal Capacity for Europe

(Joint with Christopher Schang)
Latest Version 

The European fiscal governance framework remains incomplete, leading to challenges in coordinating policy responses when facing economic shocks, and hampering the transmission of the single monetary policy. Moreover, high public debt burdens, coupled with pro-cyclical and chronically low public investment in the face of high investment needs hamper resilience across Member States. Several policy-makers, institutions and academics hence share the view that the establishment of a central fiscal capacity (CFC) would be an important step forward. Against this backdrop, we provide a framework to assess a proposal for a CFC in the euro area, aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, promoting sovereign debt sustainability as well as reducing the procyclicality of public investment. We develop a two-region DSGE model with a permanent CFC that allocates resources based on the relative output gap of the two regions while earmarking a fraction for public investment and imposing fiscal adjustment requirements for the high-debt region. We find that the introduction of the CFC can lead to enhanced business cycle stabilisation and welfare improvements for both regions. In response to an asymmetric shock, the CFC reduces procyclicality in public investment and tames the public debt burden. The analysis also explores modelling extensions to enable European bond issuance and implement an active supranational investment strategy to address investment needs by providing European Public Goods (EPGs).

Intangible Intensity, Recessions and Growth Potential in Europe

Latest Version 

This paper analyses the evolution of intangible intensity in Europe, in normal times and following a negative shock. I show that intangible intensity has been on the rise in Europe, both due to research and development expenditure (R&D) and other firm specific intangibles. I find that smaller firms invest relatively more in intangibles, larger firms tend to have a higher share of intangible capital and that firms that invest more in intangibles tend to grow faster in revenue. Moreover, I find evidence of a slowdown in the rise of intangible intensity brought about by the Great Recession of 2008-2009, driven by a slowdown in R&D investment. Overall, the paper offers insights on the drivers and evolution of intangible intensity in Europe, and its effect on
firm growth. Moreover, it provides evidence on the long lasting scarring effects of recessions on the structural transformation process towards a more intangible intensive economy, and on economic growth potential.


Graduate Teaching Assistant/Fellow

I received certified training from the Economics Network  in 2017 and 2018

Teaching Excellence Award 2017/2018 and 2018/2019

(University of Nottingham)

Wooden Board

 " Very helpful feedback on presentation. Kind and approachable person."

Economic Integration

1st year module

2019/2020 Seminars


"Francesca went over and above to help me, and even gave me guidance on future study outside of the module. Cannot recommend her more highly, honestly the best person to have taught me this year."

Economics Dissertation

3rd year module

2018/2019 Seminars

Bark & Woodchip


"Amazing tutor, great at explaining things, the tutorials were really helpful"

Macroeconomic Theory

2nd year module

2017/2018 Seminars

Flowers on Wood

"She was very helpful and got a lot of ideas regarding my dissertation (.... )She even put detailed suggestions on Moodle for me under my presentation submission and even links to find more information regarding her suggestions. She was also really helpful and knew a lot regarding stata and econometrics when I asked questions during my presentation."

Economics Dissertation

3rd year module

2019/2020 Seminars and

STATA clinics

Wooden Deck


"Great tutor and I definitely benefited a lot from her expertise and help."

Monetary Economics

2nd year module

2018/2019 Seminars

Image by Jon Moore


"I thought Francesca was an excellent tutor. She was very thorough with her explanations of questions."

Quantitative Methods

1st year module

2017/2018 Seminars

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